Gartner Hype Cycle
The Gartner hype cycle (introduced by Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn in 1995) is a graphical model of the maturity and public expectation of an emerging technology over time. It is cluster F’s expectations lens — a complement to, and often confused with, the technology-adoption-curve (which tracks adoption share, not hype).
The five phases
- Technology Trigger — a breakthrough draws media attention; usable products may not yet exist.
- Peak of Inflated Expectations — success stories and many failures; over-enthusiasm.
- Trough of Disillusionment — interest wanes as implementations fail; weak vendors exit.
- Slope of Enlightenment — real use cases prove value; 2nd/3rd-gen products appear.
- Plateau of Productivity — mainstream adoption and clear market relevance.
Used as a forecasting/timing tool: when to invest in an emerging technology.
Heavily critiqued
Worth holding lightly: it is not a cycle and not empirically validated. Critics note “only a small share — perhaps a fifth — move from innovation to excitement to despondency to widespread adoption”; The Economist (2024) found six in ten technologies entering the trough never recover. Its core flaw is assuming all technologies follow the same pattern — the same objection tech-adoption-curve-twenty-years makes (most significant post-2000 technologies weren’t flagged early). There’s also a conflict-of-interest angle: the framework’s author sells the research.
Hype cycle vs adoption curve
The technology-adoption-curve describes who has adopted (population share over time, S-curve); the hype cycle describes how expectations swing (sentiment over time). A technology can be deep in the Trough of Disillusionment while still climbing the adoption curve — they measure different things, which is why pairing them (sentiment × adoption) is more informative than either alone.
Related
technology-adoption-curve · crossing-the-chasm · tech-adoption-curve-twenty-years · gartner-hype-cycle-wikipedia