Gartner Hype Cycle (Wikipedia)
Neutral reference source backing the gartner-hype-cycle concept. Created by Gartner analyst Jackie Fenn in 1995 as a graphical model of a technology’s maturity and the public expectation around it.
Key content
- Five phases: Technology Trigger → Peak of Inflated Expectations → Trough of Disillusionment → Slope of Enlightenment → Plateau of Productivity.
- Use: a forecasting/timing tool for when to invest in an emerging technology.
Critiques (the article is notably critical)
- Not universal: “only a small share — perhaps a fifth — move from innovation to excitement to despondency to widespread adoption.”
- Not scientific: subjective terminology, no empirical validation.
- Poor track record: most significant technologies adopted since 2000 weren’t flagged early in their cycle.
- The Economist (2024): “six in ten” technologies entering the trough never recover — undermining predictive value.
- Implicit conflict of interest (the framework’s owner sells the research).
Caveat
Tertiary summary; and the subject itself is a contested, vendor-owned heuristic — hold loosely.
Related
gartner-hype-cycle · technology-adoption-curve · crossing-the-chasm